SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…A semi-organized line of thunderstorms will continue to pose an isolated strong to damaging wind threat for the next couple of hours before weakening as it moves eastward this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION…A wind gust to 50 kt was observed at KLOR in southeastern AL at 0118Z as a line of thunderstorms moved through, with other surface observations showing wind gusts of generally 30-45 kt across far southeastern AL and the western FL Panhandle. A couple reports of tree damage have also been received across this region. 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will support continued storm organization in the short term. But, instability wanes quickly with eastward extent in the FL Panhandle and far southwestern GA as surface dewpoints likewise decrease from the mid 60s to upper 50s. The 00Z sounding from TLH showed an inversion around 620 mb and very minimal instability, which will likely induce weakening of the ongoing line of thunderstorms as they move eastward through the remainder of the evening. Still, at least some potential for an isolated strong to damaging wind gust should persist for the next couple of hours, particularly near the coast in the FL Panhandle where instability, although weak, is slightly greater than locations farther inland. A brief, line-embedded tornado can also not be completely ruled out given the very strong low-level shear noted on the KEVX VWP.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions