SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Risk for a brief tornado associated with low-topped convection will exist over the next few hours. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION…Latest radar continues to show generally weak/low-topped convection — producing little in the way of lightning — across portions of Alabama and Georgia. Ample low-topped CAPE and sufficient shear for storm rotation exists across this region, near a weak central Alabama frontal wave and the associated/eastward-extending warm front. However, the larger-scale environment remains generally unsupportive of stronger/more organized convection, with short-wave ridging aloft to gradually increase across the region tonight. However, a few stronger cells near the aforementioned warm front have exhibited organization/low-level rotation over the past hour or so; specifically, a cell which is exiting northeast Harris County GA and moving into southern Meriwether County has exhibited sustained low-level rotation and appears capable of producing a weak tornado as it interacts with low-level vorticity in the vicinity of the surface warm front. Though a few additional cells may also follow a similar evolution this evening, overall risk is expected to remain limited/local — and thus watch issuance is not anticipated.

Tags: MesoScaleDiscussion

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