SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely
SUMMARY…A few more damaging wind gusts remain possible with a bowing complex near the MS/AL border, before weakening with the onset of nocturnal stabilization.
DISCUSSION…An east-northeast propagating MCS, currently located along the MS/AL border, continues to produce wind damage within an ambient environment characterized by marginal deep-layer and low-level shear, but with moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg). Surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s within close proximity to the bowing complex. However, dewpoints (along with instability) are lower in central/north-central Alabama, where overall shear and deep-layer ascent are even weaker compared to points farther west. The MCS is expected to undergo gradual weakening over the next few hours, with damaging wind gusts remaining a concern for the next hour or two, before nocturnal cooling both weakens convection and dampens the downward transport of higher momentum air via a surface stratified/stable layer.
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