SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely

SUMMARY…Discrete storms may continue for a few more hours, posing mainly a severe hail risk, though a few damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out. A WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION…Relatively discrete convection, occasionally exhibiting brief, transient supercell structures, continue to initiate/sustain themselves along a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone extending from central Mississippi, to far southeast Tennessee. Instability is gradually waning across the warm sector, with MLCAPE decreasing to 1000-1500 J/kg in the last few hours. Nonetheless, relatively steep low-level lapse rates and 0-3km CAPE exceeding 100 J/kg have supported vigorous updraft development despite a weak shear environment being in place, with 1.5 inch diameter hail reported in Fayette County, AL an hour ago. Before the onset of nocturnal stabilization, a few more instances of severe hail are possible, with a severe gust or two possible with the stronger water-loaded downdrafts. Given the sparse nature of the severe hail/wind threat, no WW issuances are expected at this time.

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