SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 55… 56…

SUMMARY…A severe threat will likely continue into the early overnight period as a line moves eastward into western Alabama. A tornado threat, wind damage and hail can be expected with the line.

DISCUSSION…The latest radar imagery shows a well-developed linear MCS across eastern Mississippi extending southward into southern Mississippi and far southeastern Louisiana. Surface analysis ahead of the line into western Alabama shows surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. RAP analysis is estimating that MLCAPE values are in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, the RAP shows a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet oriented parallel to the convective line which has helped the line to become more organized over the last couple of hours. The low-level jet is creating strong low-level shear profiles which will support a tornado threat with rotating cells embedded in the line. Both the northeastern Mississippi and Mobile, AL WSR-88D-VWPs have a looped hodograph with 0-3 km storm relative helicity in access of 500 m2/s2 which suggests a few strong tornadoes will be possible. Wind damage will be likely with the stronger portions of the line as well.

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