SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Tornado Watch 56…

SUMMARY…The tornado threat continues across WW 56, and should reach eastern portions of the WW around 08Z-09Z. In that timeframe, conditions will be reevaluated for another potential WW issuance.

DISCUSSION…An ongoing, broken band of strong to severe convection persists along a surface trough from near Hale County, AL south-southwestward to near PQL on the MS Gulf Coast. The severe threat with this activity will primarily be damaging wind gusts, although bows/LEWPs and more discrete activity will be capable of tornadoes given continued strong low- and deep-shear. 06Z area upper air soundings from LIX, FFC, TLH, and BMX indicate subtle mid-level inversions – most pronounced in the 500-700 hPa layer in TLHs soundings. With synoptic-scale forcing for ascent displaced well to the west (and tied to the closed upper low over eastern Oklahoma), it appears that any remaining convection will most likely remain tied to convergence along the surface trough and broad low-level confluence within the weakly to moderately unstable warm sector. These processes will likely continue as the band continues to shift east and will probably exist east of WW 56, with damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two remaining possible. Before convection reaches the eastern extent of WW 56, a downstream WW will need to be considered and coordinated with affected WFOs.

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