SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Possible

SUMMARY…Trends are being monitored for a possible increase in thunderstorm organization and intensity during the next couple of hours over the central Gulf coastal region. A ww issuance is possible, but remains uncertain and will ultimately depend on convective trends.

DISCUSSION…Storms have recently shown an increase in coverage over the central Gulf coast region including extreme southern AL and the far western FL Panhandle. The convection is discrete, but has so far shown very little tendency for organization. Activity appears to be forming in association with an increase in the southern extension of the low-level jet which is responding to the next in a series of vorticity maxima rotating through the base of the synoptic trough. Dewpoints have increased to around 70 F south of the warm front, which has contributed to destabilization (MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg) along the central Gulf Coast region. However, the atmosphere still has not yet fully recovered from the effects of previous convection. Nevertheless, given increasing forcing for ascent, modest instability, sizeable low-level hodographs and strong effective shear, this area bears watching next couple hours for evidence of organization and possible supercell development.

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