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A Warm and Humid Father’s Day; Widely Scattered Storms This Afternoon, Mostly Quiet Tonight with a Few Possible Showers/Storms North

| June 16, 2019 @ 12:57 pm

Skies are partly cloudy across Central Alabama just after midday on this Father’s Day 2019.

Temperatures are in the middle and upper 80s, heading toward highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With dewpoints in the low and middle 70s, it feels quite uncomfortable out there.

The atmosphere over Alabama is moderately unstable with CAPE values running from 3000-5000 joules west of I-65. There is no real forcing available so, so the only storms that form this afternoon will be from afternoon heating. Once temperatures reach 88-90F, a few scattered storms may be able to form. They will have the potential to produce gusty winds and heavy rain as well as frequent lightning.

To the west, a long line of active thunderstorms is in progress along outflow from overnight activity over the Plains. That line extends from near Oxford in Northern Mississippi back to near Natchitoches, Louisiana to near Crockett in eastern Texas. A tremendous amount of lightning with the activity. The NWS in Memphis noted up to 300 flashes of lightning in just five minutes for the storm near Oxford, with 20 cloud to ground strikes.

This activity is being supported by the warm, moist, unstable airmass it in ingesting, but it is running into higher pressures the further east it goes, so it should run out of steam before reaching northwest Alabama. Still, we will keep an eye on them.

There are hints that a few showers and storms could form tonight across northeastern Mississippi, into northern Alabama, so we will be watching that as well. The SPC does maintain a marginal risk of severe weather (1 out of 5 on the scale) for the westernmost counties of the state. The activity should die out before reaching I-59.

Otherwise, it should be a quiet night across the state with lows generally around 70F. Normally cooler spots will be in the upper 60s, with some lower 70s around the urban heat islands of Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, as well as Montgomery.

More afternoon and evening storms will pop up tomorrow afternoon, with highs reaching the middle and upper 80s. A few strong storms could move into West and Northwest Alabama by late afternoon. Some of those could flirt with being severe, damaging winds being the main threat. But again, they weaken before reaching I-59 or I-65.

Do look for another band of rain and storms to move deeper into Alabama during the overnight hours, perhaps reaching Birmingham and Tuscaloosa by sunrise Tuesday and affecting much of the area Tuesday morning.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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