SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Watch Unlikely
SUMMARY…A few strong wind gusts will be possible through the afternoon from the central Gulf Coast vicinity northeast toward eastern South Carolina.
DISCUSSION…Numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along a southward-sagging cold front. Temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s have resulted in moderate to strong instability, with 18z mesoanalysis indicating 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear is weak across the region and will limit sustained organized features. However, PW values over 2 inches and low level lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support sporadic strong downbursts. A couple of locally damaging gusts will especially be possible if any clusters begin to surge/forward propagate through storm mergers and/or along outflow interactions. Overall, the threat will remain transient and a watch is not expected.
Category: ALL POSTS, MescoScale Discussions
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