Drier Air Arrives Wednesday

| August 26, 2019 @ 3:26 pm

WET SUMMER DAY: As advertised, this has been a very wet late August day across Alabama, and rain remains widespread across the state this afternoon. Temperatures are only in the 70s due to clouds and rain, and Fort Payne reports a cool 68 degrees at mid-afternoon. Periods of rain will continue tonight as an upper trough interacts with deep tropical moisture in place across the state.

I do think we will see some sun at times tomorrow, but again we will forecast scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the moist airmass… the high will be back in the mid 80s for most communities.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Drier air arrives over North Alabama Wednesday… the day will be dry there will showers confined to the southern half of the state. Then, all of Alabama will enjoy a dry, pleasant day Thursday with lots of sunshine, lower humidity, and a cool morning for August. Some of the cooler spots across North/Central Alabama could see a low in the 50s early Thursday morning.

Friday will be dry for most of the state, but showers are possible over some of the southern counties as moist air begins to return. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday through Friday.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: Showers are possible statewide Saturday, but they should be more numerous over the southern counties of Alabama. Then, expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday as moisture levels rise. This won’t be an “all day” kind of rain, but occasional showers are likely. Highs over the weekend will be in the upper 80s Saturday, and in the mid 80s Sunday and Monday.

NEXT WEEK: Quite frankly, the weather on Tuesday on through mid-week will all depend on the situation with what is now Tropical Storm Dorian. For now we will broad brush the forecast with the usual early September pattern (warm, humid, scattered showers and storms), but be aware the forecast can and probably will change as we get better clarity on the tropical situation. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: UAB will host Alabama State Thursday night at Birmingham’s Legion Field… kickoff is at 7:00p CT. The weather will be delightful. A clear sky with temperatures falling from near 85 at kickoff, into the 70s during the second half.

Alabama will take on Duke in the Chick Fil A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta (2:30p CT kickoff)… the game will be played indoors (Mercedes Benz Stadium), but outside the sky will be partly sunny with potential for few scattered showers. Temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 80s in Atlanta Saturday afternoon.

Auburn travels to Dallas/Fort Worth to take Oregon at AT&T Stadium Saturday evening (7:30p CT kickoff). Temperatures will top out in the 90s during the day Saturday, falling though the 80s during the game. Only widely scattered showers are expected, and there is as retractable roof at the venue.

TROPICS: A well organized system (Invest 98L) is well east of Charleston, and is expected to become a tropical depression or storm tonight. It will move northeast, toward the Canadian maritimes. No threat to the U.S.

Tropical Storm Dorian is packing sustained winds of 60 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight, and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea tomorrow. Dorian is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night as a category one hurricane.

Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result in some weakening in 72-96 hours, followed by restrengthening on day 5 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the Bahamas in low shear conditions. Given the unknown degree of interaction with Hispaniola, the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5 is of very low confidence.

Any potential impacts from Dorian in the Bahamas and Florida later this week are highly uncertain, given the potential for the system to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola. There is little to no skill in a specific track and intensity forecast of a tropical cyclone beyond seven days; it is unknown if this system will impact Alabama or the Gulf of Mexico. Output from the European ensemble shows the the uncertainty; various members take the system anywhere from Texas to a recurve path well east of the U.S. Atlantic coast.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

ON THIS DATE IN 1992: Hurricane Andrew made a second landfall near Burns Point, LA as a Category 3 hurricane. Morgan City, LA recorded sustained winds of 92 mph with a peak gust of 108 mph. Hammond, LA was deluged with 11.92 inches of rain. As Andrew moved inland and weakened, it spawned 47 tornadoes from this date through the 28th from the South to the Mid-Atlantic States.

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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