Karen’s Wind Field Beginning To Unravel, Expected To Be A Remnant Low By Saturday

Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049 indicate that Karen’s circulation is becoming increasingly elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The deterioration of Karen’s structure suggests that weakening is imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models–via their simulated infrared satellite fields–are unanimous in showing Karen losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by day 5.