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Strong To Severe Storm Threat Continues For Tomorrow Night Through Sunday Morning

| November 29, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Latest run of the high-resolution NAM valid from 8:00 pm Saturday to 8:00 am Sunday.

NWS Birmingham continues with a Marginal Threat for severe storms for much of Central Alabama starting late on Saturday night and persisting through the morning hours on Sunday. Damaging winds up to 60 MPH and a few brief tornadoes are possible.

To be more specific, the Marginal Risk is for locations west and south of a line from Cullman to Calera to LaFayette (Chambers Co.).

Timing remains the same as we can expect to see the potential for those strong to severe storms starting as early as 8:00 pm Saturday over the western parts of the area and ending around 8:00 am Sunday morning over the southeastern parts. Here is a better breakdown of the timing:

8:00 pm to midnight for the western parts of the area (west of a line from Fairview in Cullman County to Vance in Tuscaloosa County to Linden in Marengo County).

10:00 pm to 3:00 am for the central parts of the area (west of a line from Kellyton in Coosa County to Hayneville in Lowndes County).

1:00 am to 8:00 am for the southeastern parts of the area (including Montgomery, Auburn, Troy, and Eufaula).

While a few showers may form out ahead of the main line of storms and affect the northwestern parts of Central Alabama during the late afternoon and into the early evening, we do not expect the main line of storms that will have the potential for strong to severe storms to enter the area until or just after 8:00 pm Saturday night. The line will progress across the area and weaken over the northern half while the severe threat will continue through the early and mid-morning hours on Sunday for the southeastern parts.

There will be plenty of shear and helicity in place over all of Central Alabama during the main window of action, but the limiting factor will be the amount of instability that will move up into the area from the south. Warm moist air will be advected into the area out ahead of the main line, bringing dewpoints well up into the 60s. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60s until the front reaches your location, then slowly falling into the 50s before sunrise.

Instability values look to be around 500 J/kg or less for the southern half of the area, which is where I think the main threat of those brief spin-up tornadoes will be. But remember, brief tornadoes are possible across all of the Marginal Risk areas.

Be sure to have multiple ways of receiving alerts throughout the late night and overnight hours, especially one that will wake you up if a tornado warning is issued for your location. MyWarn is a great app for the iPhone. An NOAA WeatherRadio will do a great job as well if it has been programmed. We will have updates throughout the event and leading up to it.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is a meteorologist, graphic artist, musician, husband, and a father. Scott is a member of the National Weather Association and the Central Alabama Chapter of the National Weather Association. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides accurate forecasts for many racing series across the USA.

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