Severe Weather Threat from Late Monday Afternoon into Early Tuesday for Central and North Alabama

| December 15, 2019 @ 7:18 am

The threat of severe weather highlights this forecast package as we reach the middle of December. Let’s dig into the details.

PATCHY FOG, LOW CLOUDS GREET THE DAY: Increasing lift and moisture overnight is resulting in low clouds and some patchy fog this morning. A dense fog advisory is in effect for southern parts of the area. The stratus will be hard to burn off today, and for that reason, temperatures will struggle to make it very far into the lower 60s. There may be a few breaks in the clouds late in the day.

TONIGHT: Breezy, milder: Tonight will be several degrees warmer than last night, as southerly winds increase because of an increasing southwesterly low-level jet from Louisiana into the Ohio Valley. Rain chances will slowly ramp up, although it should be mainly dry. Winds will gust to near 25 mph starting late this evening and continuing through the overnight. The trough driving that low-level jet will also start to spin up a surface low that will track across Alabama Monday night.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY: Monday morning will dawn mostly cloudy and mild. The day will remain mostly cloudy, but highs will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints will be climbing to near 60F by the end of the day as winds gust to near 30 mph at times out of the south. Showers and storms will build during the early afternoon from northern Mississippi through Central Tennessee ahead of a cold front. The showers and storms will move into Northwest Alabama during the late afternoon and will reach the I-59 Corridor around after midnight. The storms will reach the Auburn and Montgomery areas around sunrise or shortly thereafter. Instability levels will be fairly low, but sufficient to produce decent storm updrafts. Wind shear values will certainly be high enough to produce both damaging winds and even tornadoes. Large hail appears to be a threat as well. Hence, the NWS Birmingham and the Strom Prediction Center have a severe weather threat for all of Central and North Alabama for Monday night.

REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN: It’s time to dust off that severe weather safety plan and make sure your family and business or organization is ready for the possibility of severe weather during the middle of the night. The main threat window will be between 4 p.m. in the northwest, until early morning in the southeast.

NOTICING THE NAM: The high-resolution NAM has been very ominous in predicting Significant Tornado Parameter values over 2 across parts of Central Alabama late Monday night. The European is right there as well. This would point to the possibility of a couple of strong tornadoes. It bears watching and underscores the point that you need to really keep an eye on later forecasts and alerts for Monday night.

TUESDAY: Tuesday highs will be in the middle 60s, but this will be misleading. They will occur in the hours immediately after midnight. Temperatures will fall into the 40s in areas along and northwest of I-59 by sunrise, with steady or falling temperatures throughout the day. A strong northwest wind will make it feel even colder and rain will continue into the early morning. Most areas in North and central Alabama will go below freezing Tuesday night.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Highs on Wednesday will struggle to get above 50F, and lows Thursday morning will be below freezing again. Thursday highs will rebound into the middle 50s.

FOR THE WEEKEND: Showers will return late Friday into Saturday as a trough approaches from the west.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY: Look for cool and dry weather across Alabama and much of the Southeast. Highs will be in the 50s, lows in the 40s.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mild today, warm tomorrow, rain Monday night and Tuesday. Cooler for the rest of the week along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page.

WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel will entertain Matt Tanner of Delta Airlines, but he will be speaking about his role as a meteorologist for the Georgia Air National Guard. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live at live.bigbrainsmedia.com You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1901: The third week of December was a cold one in Birmingham, AL as record lows that still stand today were recorded on 6 of the 7 days between the 15th and 21st. It is tied for ninth place in the pantheon of coldest six-day average minimum temperature at 11.0F. If the 24F on December 19, 1901, had been colder, the span would have ranked higher on the list. The coldest six-day period in Magic City history happened in 1899 when the average low was 7.5F over a similar span from February 8-14. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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