Tropical Storm Edouard Forms Over the North Atlantic, Looks to Become Post-Tropical on Monday
SUMMARY AS OF 10:00 PM CDT
LOCATION…37.2N 56.9W
ABOUT 685 MI…1100 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large convective burst causing a better-defined low-level circulation. While the center is now becoming exposed due to southwesterly shear, the maximum winds have almost certainly increased from earlier, so the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. A recent partial ASCAT pass of at least 30 kt outside the RMW also supports the upgrade to a tropical storm, and the CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON) is even higher than the analyzed intensity.
Edouard is moving northeastward even faster than before, or 055/30 kt. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on a quick northeastward or east-northeastward motion for the next couple of days before the system degenerates into a trough. Extratropical transition is anticipated by 24 hours due to forcing from a middle-latitude trough and a frontal boundary. Some minor strengthening of Edouard due to the transition process is possible over the next day or so before the global models show a gradual weakening. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit faster to account for the latest guidance and initial forward speed, and the intensity forecast has also been nudged upward to account for the current wind speed.
Edouard is the earliest known 5th named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Emily on July 12, 2005.