New Severe T-Storm Watch Possible for South Alabama

| July 12, 2020 @ 2:55 pm

SUMMARY… Trends continue to be monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch south/southeast of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362. After 4-5 PM CDT, stronger thunderstorm development, with potentially damaging wind gusts, may tend to become focused across southwestern Alabama and parts of southeastern Mississippi.

DISCUSSION… Southeast of the plume of very moist boundary-layer air, now extending across southern Mississippi into central Alabama, a drier environment persists roughly southeast of the Interstate 65 corridor of Alabama into Georgia. This has allowed for stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing, but with only very weak mixed-layer CAPE due to warm temperatures aloft. This could change some with subtle mid-level cooling accompanying the ongoing convective cluster spreading across central into southern Alabama, but perhaps not enough to maintain vigorous convective redevelopment on the leading edge of the forward/southeastward advancing cold pool. Although the environment may remain favorable for the persistence of the gust front for period, the potential for severe gusts should wane as convection diminishes.

The latest High-Resolution Rapid Refresh suggests that continuing moist inflow into/above the southwestern flank of the cold pool may provide the primary focus for continuing vigorous thunderstorm development after 21-22Z. Although the sea-breeze is advancing inland of the Mississippi/Alabama Gulf coast, it does not seem out of the question that a cluster of storms could approach the Mobile AL and Gulfport/Biloxi MS area accompanied by strong surface gusts into early evening.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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