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A Few Strong Storms Around Tonight/Tomorrow; Active Tropics

| August 20, 2020 @ 3:27 pm

RADAR CHECK: A band of showers and thunderstorms continues to move northward through Central Alabama this afternoon; the heavier storms are capable of producing strong, gusty winds and lots of lightning. SPC maintains a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for most of the state through tonight.

Away from the storms, the sky features more clouds than sun with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s; the average high for August 20 at Birmingham is 91.

The weather won’t change much tomorrow through the weekend; occasionally cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. Most of the rain will come from during the window from noon to midnight, but we can’t rule out a few late night or morning showers. Highs will be mostly in the mid 80s. No “wash out”, but just be ready for occasional showers. Most communities will see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain from today through Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: The weather will all depend on two tropical systems that are expected to be in the Gulf of Mexico early in the week. We will keep a summer persistence forecast for now, but be aware there could be some big changes as we get better clarity on the tropical situation. Highs next week will be generally between 86 and 91 degrees. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICAL UPDATE: We now have two tropical depressions on the board, and a tropical wave to watch. The wave is just coming off the coast of Africa, and has a medium chance of becoming a depression or storm over the next five days… a long way from the U.S. and just something to watch for now.

TD 14: Tropical Depression 14 is in the Caribbean, about 200 miles east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border… moving to the west at 18 mph. The system is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow… it will sideswipe the coast of Central America tomorrow, and then will move over the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday. From there, it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, and the latest NHC track has the center southeast of Houston Tuesday morning. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.

It remains too early to know if there will be any impact on Alabama or the Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach).

TD 13: Tropical Depression 13 is 700 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, and is moving to the west/northwest at 21 mph. The NHC forecast track takes the center just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the weekend, and to a point near the Florida Keys Monday as a category one hurricane. Then, the forecast has the center just southwest of Tampa Bay Tuesday morning.

The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system’s progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days.

Again, it is simply too early to know what, if any impact to expect for Alabama and the Central Gulf Coast. We will have much better clarity by the weekend.

Everyone on the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of these two systems closely in coming days. This is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, so everyone there should be ready one way or another. We will watch them very carefully and keep you updated. But, we stress nobody can forecast the landfall point or intensity at the time of landfall right now. It is simply beyond the science.

ON THIS DATE IN 2011: A tropical wave was upgraded to Tropical Storm Irene east of the Leeward Islands. It would go on to make landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina on August 27, becoming the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Ike in 2008.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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