A Brief Tornado May Be Possible for Extreme Southeastern Parts of Central Alabama for the Next Few Hours

SUMMARY…The potential for isolated tornadoes and/or gusty outflow winds probably will gradually diminish during the next few hours. A new watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION…The low-level circulation center of Marco is now south/southwest of Boothville LA, while increasingly sheared mid-level remnants continue to migrate inland of the northeastern Gulf Coast, across southeastern Alabama, toward west-central Georgia. This is occurring around the western periphery of a prominent western Atlantic subtropical ridge. A substantive lower/mid tropospheric height gradient along the southwestern periphery of this ridging is maintaining moderate (30+ kt) southeasterly low-level flow across much of the Florida Peninsula into southern Georgia/Alabama, but models suggest that this will gradually shift westward and weaken overnight.

Weak low-level warm advection and associated lift of tropical moisture supportive of sizable CAPE (1000-2000+ J/kg) have maintained vigorous convective development. Across much of the Florida Panhandle, this has generally remained focused to the north of a zone of stronger differential surface heating, above at least a shallow rain-cooled surface-based air mass.

However, as indicated in the 25/00Z sounding from Tallahassee, hodographs within the elevated inflow layer are modestly large, clockwise curved, and supportive of updraft rotation. Sustained updraft rotation has been observed in at least a couple of storms spreading across the Interstate 10 corridor west of Tallahassee, but the lingering presence of the stable surface layer suggests a limited potential for tornadic development.

These storms, and the gusty outflow dominant boundary-layer based storms, which spread across northern Florida into southern Georgia, probably will begin to wane with boundary-layer cooling due to loss of daytime heating and convective outflow.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical