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We Now Have Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Located South of Jamaica

| September 1, 2020 @ 10:11 am

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…16.1N 77.5W
ABOUT 140 MI…225 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 160 MI…260 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala-Honduras border, including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of Guatemala, Belize, and the southern Yucatan Peninsula later today.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 77.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Additional development is expected today and on Wednesday, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form at any time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly northeast through northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 MB (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible over the northern portions of Honduras beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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