What’s The Story on the Rest of the Tropics at 4:00 pm
NAMED STORMS
Paulette Weakens and is Expected to Become an Extratropical Cyclone in a Few Days
WINDS: 100 mph MOVEMENT: east-northeast at 30 MPH
LOCATION: 740 miles northeast of Bermuda
The same general motion with a further increase in speed is expected through Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday as the cyclone undergoes extratropical transition and moves over much cooler water. Paulette should complete its transition to an extratropical cyclone Thursday.
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Teddy Expected to Turn to the Northwest and Strengthen Tonight
WINDS: 65 mph MOVEMENT: west-northwest at 13 MPH
LOCATION: 895 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
A steady northwest motion at 10 to 15 mph is expected through the end of the week. Strengthening is forecast, and Teddy could become a hurricane tonight. Teddy is forecast to be near major hurricane strength within a few days. At this point, Teddy is making a bee-line toward Bermuda, who just took a direct hit from Paulette just a couple of days ago. We’ll have to watch it closely over the next several days.
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Vicky Expected to Weaken
WINDS: 45 mph MOVEMENT: west-northwest at 12 MPH
LOCATION: 640 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday, followed by a westward motion through dissipation. Weakening is forecast, and Vicky is expected to become a tropical depression on Wednesday, weaken to a remnant low Wednesday night, and dissipate by Friday.
DISTURBANCES
1. An elongated area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during the next few days where it will encounter warmer oceanic temperatures, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics this week. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical