Gamma Continues to Move Inland Over the Northeastern Yucatan Peninsula

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…20.4N 87.6W
ABOUT 15 MI…25 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…980 MB…28.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
* North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 87.6 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move farther inland over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is likely through tonight while the center moves over land. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin when the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 MB (28.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4-6 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Hurricane conditions could still occur within the Hurricane Warning area during the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today, and these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and north of where the center crossed the coast. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should begin to subside later today.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical