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7:00 am Update: Delta’s Rain Bands Spreading Inland Over Southwestern Louisiana & Southeastern Texas

| October 9, 2020 @ 8:00 am

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.5N 93.8W
ABOUT 160 MI…255 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…958 MB…28.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* High Island Texas to Mouth of the Pearl River Louisiana including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 93.8 West. Delta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue today followed by a north-northeastward motion by
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move
inland within the hurricane warning area this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta
approaches the northern Gulf Coast later today, with rapid weakening
expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 958 MB (28.29 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA…5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA…3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River…2-4 ft
Calcasieu Lake…2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass…2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River…2-4 ft
Lake Borgne…2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay…1-3 ft
Sabine Lake…1-3 ft
Port O’Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay…
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas later today.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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