Zeta Moving Over the Southern Gulf of Mexico, Expected to Regain Hurricane Strength Later Today

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.1N 90.1W
ABOUT 485 MI…785 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 90.1 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the
north tonight, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion
is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta
will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico today and over the
central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane
warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland
across the southeastern United States early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen while it moves over the
southern Gulf of Mexico, and become a hurricane again later today.
Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide…

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL…5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne…4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…3-5 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay…2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay…2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

Water levels along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
will gradually subside today as Zeta moves away from the area.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
late Wednesday.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through today across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near and in advance
of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6
inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban,
small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical