Limited Severe Threat Continues as We Approach 3:30 am

| January 1, 2021 @ 3:27 am

Radar as of 3:11 am continues to show scattered to numerous light to moderate showers over North/Central Alabama, while the main storm activity continues to move through the east-central parts of Mississippi. We continue to have no strong or severe storms out there as no warnings are currently in effect.

The latest Area Forecast Discussion from NWS Birmingham states… The severe weather threat continues to appear unimpressive with very little deep convection anywhere on the radar within the warm sector of this storm system. As the front and drier air moves eastward from Mississippi this morning, a somewhat stronger convective band should take shape as the lift becomes more focused near the front. Poor lapse rates and weak upper-level support will limit the updraft organization. Severe weather is unlikely, and we have trimmed our marginal risk area to include only the southern part of our area.

That is verified by the latest run of the SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis, which shows very little in the way of instability over the southwestern parts of Central Alabama and back into east-central Mississippi. Just over the past couple of hours, we have lost nearly half of the instability that we saw on our last update. The rest of the ingredients are in place for the potential of strong to severe storms, especially with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and dewpoints in the 60s.

The latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from NWS Birmingham is now keeping a small (marginal) risk for a brief tornado or damaging winds through 1:00 PM today along and south of a line from Demopolis to Alexander City.

Even with that being said, keep your trusty source for weather warnings close by. Once we get some sunlight, we could see conditions become a little more favorable for strong to severe storms.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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