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Midday Nowcast: SPC Expands “Moderate Risk” Some

| March 24, 2021 @ 12:38 pm

A relatively quiet and calm Wednesday across much of Alabama as we are seeing a mix of sun and clouds with mild temperatures in the mid and upper 70s. Showers continue down across Far South Alabama at midday. We note, the SPC has introduced a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for severe storms across much of Alabama, and this will actually be for overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning as a warm front lifts north.

SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW: Here we go again, as another very dangerous threat for severe weather is ahead for Alabama tomorrow. The SPC has defined a “moderate risk” (level 4/5) for areas of North and West Alabama, north and west of a line from Centre, Gadsden, Pell City, Calera, Marion, and Demopolis. An “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) runs as far east as Ashland, Rockford, Prattvilel, and Thomasville…the “slight risk” (level 2/5) extends to Opelika, Troy, and Andalusia. A “marginal risk” (level 1/5) has been defined for the southeast corner of the state.

Again, don’t focus don’t focus on the lines or colors on the maps, just know, that all of Alabama will be under the threat for severe storms from this event. It doesn’t matter to the storms, they can produce a tornado in a “marginal risk” area just like they can in a “moderate risk” area.

THE SETUP: This is another, typical spring-time severe weather set-up for Alabama as a potent, negatively tilted upper air trough will generate a deepening surface low west of Alabama. This will cause a warm front to lift north, allowing for surging instability values during the day, and the deepening surface low northwest of the state, will allow for strong wind fields aloft, high shear values, and steep lapse rates, providing an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms for Alabama and the Deep South.

THREATS: All types of severe weather will be possible as thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. A few violent, long track tornadoes are possible, especially in the “moderate risk” area along and north of I-59, but again, all of Alabama is under the threat for severe storms during this event.

TIMING: As the warm front lifts north overnight and early tomorrow morning across the state, showers and storms are expected, and these could be strong and possibly severe. Sometimes as a warm front lifts north ahead of a dynamic system, they can produce some stronger storms, which can produce large hail and the chance for isolated tornadoes due to the change in wind direction across the boundary. Just something to watch overnight tonight and early tomorrow. Now for the main event, the window for severe thunderstorms over Northwest Alabama will run from noon 11am until 9 pm. For places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden the window is from 3pm until 11 pm, and for Montgomery and points south and east the threat will come from 5pm until 2am.

FLOODING: With recent rain and more expected, there could be some issues with flooding and flash flooding. The heaviest rain with this event will come over the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama, where some places could see 2-4 inches of rain, for the rest of the state, amounts elsewhere will be around one inch.

CALL TO ACTION: We all did an incredible job of being ready for last week’s severe weather event on March 17th. We had 25 tornadoes in the state and despite the major damage, there was not a single fatality. We need to have the same level of preparedness for tomorrow.

Have multiple, reliable ways to receive severe weather alerts, NEVER, ever, ever rely on a siren. Every Alabama home and business needs a NOAA Weather Radio (the most popular model is the Midland WR-120, which is sold in most local big box retailers). The other way is your phone…be sure emergency alerts are enabled (look under settings, and notifications), and install the free ABC 33/40 Weather app.

Know the safe place in your house, and in that safe place have helmets for everyone. Bicycle helmets and batting helmets work well. We also recommend portable air horns and hard soled shoes for everyone. If you live in an apartment complex, you can’t be above the first level. Shelter with a friend on the ground level, or ask management if they can open the clubhouse during a tornado warning.

If you live in a mobile home, you can not stay there during a tornado warning, they offer little to no protection from severe storms. Know the location of the nearest shelter, or business that is open 24/7. Know how to get there quickly.

BE A HERO: You can help us. Tell your friends, neighbors, and relatives about the threat, and what they need to do to get ready. And, if they fall in a tornado warning polygon, call them or text them to let them know about the threat. You are our most valuable resource in spreading the word!

Many of you have anxiety about severe weather, especially those that have gone through tornadoes or other kinds of violent weather. Have comfort knowing that even on the biggest severe weather days, odds of any one home being hit by a tornado are very low. But, you have to pay attention and be prepared. We will get through the day together.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in visiting.

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 110.5F at Luxor, Egypt. The lowest observation was -77.6F at Concordia, Antarctica.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation was 96F at Falcon Lake, TX. The lowest observation was -11F at Peter Sinks, UT.

WEATHER ON THIS DATE IN 1912: Residents of Kansas City began to dig out from a storm produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours. The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm on modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe KS received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th)

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS

About the Author ()

Macon, Georgia Television Chief Meteorologist, Birmingham native, and long time Contributor on AlabamaWX. Stormchaser. I did not choose Weather, it chose Me. College Football Fanatic. @Ryan_Stinnet

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