Tropical Depression Two Expected to Become Tropical Storm Bill Tonight
FROM THE NHC: Deep convection has weakened some this afternoon near the center of the depression, and the cloud pattern definitely is showing signs of shear. However, visible satellite imagery still indicates that it has a tight circulation, and past experience suggests with that kind of low-level structure, the depression is close to becoming a tropical storm. None of the conventional intensity estimates, however, show the system as a storm yet, and since scatterometer data also totally missed this morning, 30 kt will stay as the initial wind speed. No change is made to the intensity forecast from the last advisory, with the system having about 24 hours of time over marginally warm water to intensify. Afterward, the cyclone should quickly lose convection and transition into an extratropical low, and dissipate near Newfoundland. This forecast is somewhat higher than the guidance consensus on this cycle, but given that I was on the low side on the first forecast compared to guidance, I decided to hold steady and not waffle like the models are prone to doing.
The depression is moving northeastward at about 16 kt, a little slower than before. Model guidance is in excellent agreement on a large trough over eastern North America causing the depression to accelerate quite a bit in that general direction during the next day or two. The northeastward track is forecast to continue until the system dissipates near Newfoundland on Wednesday while it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The model guidance has shifted a little south of the previous advisory, and the NHC track prediction is shifted in that direction.
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…35.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 200 MI…320 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 72.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph, and this general motion is expected through Wednesday with increasing forward speed.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight and could continue to strengthen on Tuesday. The system is expected to become a post-tropical low and dissipate on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 MB (29.71 inches).