Only Isolated Showers Today; Higher Rain Chance Tomorrow

| June 28, 2021 @ 5:54 am

MOSTLY DRY TODAY: Precipitable water values are a bit lower across Alabama this morning, and we expect only isolated afternoon showers and storms this afternoon and into the evening hours. Odds of any one spot getting wet are 15-20 percent… otherwise look for a partly to mostly sunny sky today with a high around 90 degrees. The average high for Birmingham on June 28 is 90.

TOMORROW: A tropical low will move into the Georgia coast this evening, and the remnant trough will move westward into North Alabama tomorrow. This will bring deeper moisture into the state, and accordingly higher rain chances. Look for scattered to numerous showers and storms tomorrow, especially during the afternoon hours. Best rain coverage will be over the northern half of the state, and with only a limited amount of sun we expect a high in the mid 80s.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Look for a mix of sun and clouds on these two days with the usual summer chance of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Chance of any one spot getting wet will be around 30 percent, with highs in the upper 80s.

FRIDAY AND THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND: Global models suggest a surface front will hang up just north of Alabama, meaning relatively high rain chances Friday through Sunday. Of course, there are many outdoor events planned for the Fourth of July… understand the weekend won’t be a total “wash out”, but occasional rain and a few thunderstorms will be likely with highs only in the low 80s. The sun could peek out at times, but overall the sky will be generally cloudy. Rain amounts on these three days will likely be in the two inch range for many places.

NEXT WEEK: The surface front will creep southward Monday, but for much of the state the day still looks fairly wet with a number of showers and storms likely. Then, for the rest of the week, it looks fairly routine with the chance of scattered showers and storms daily, mostly between 1:00 and 11:00 p.m. Partly sunny days with highs in the mid 80s. Still no evidence of any excessive heat (mid 90s or higher) for Alabama through mid-July.

TROPICS: A small low pressure system is located about 300 miles east-southeast of Savannah, Georgia. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, with most of it displaced to the northwest of the surface center due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move quickly west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream later this morning, and it has some potential to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina by this evening. If the system becomes more organized today, then tropical storm warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina through tonight. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. One way or another this feature will bring enhanced rain chances to Georgia tonight, and North Alabama tomorrow.

Out in the east Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

The Gulf of Mexico will remain quiet this week.

ON THIS DATE IN 1924: An estimated F4 tornado struck the towns of Sandusky and Lorain, killing 85 people and injuring over 300. This tornado is the deadliest ever in Ohio history.

ON THIS DATE IN 1975: Lightning strikes Lee Trevino and two other golfers at the Western Open golf tournament in Oak Brook, Illinois.

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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