We May Have Tropical Storm Elsa by Late Tonight or Early Thursday Morning

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…9.6N 44.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI…1825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 44.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical