4 pm Elsa Update: All Tropical Storm Warnings for the New England Coast Have Been Discontinued

SUMMARY OF 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…43.0N 69.5W
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 65 MI…100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH…56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
None.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa’s deep convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC. Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains 45 kt.

Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.

It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT). Elsa’s classification at the time the center crossed the coast will be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed from the cyclone’s center.

Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory.

KEY MESSAGES
1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.

2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.

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Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical