Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

7 pm Advisory — NOAA & Air Force Reserve Aircraft Currently Investigating Tropical Depression Fred

| August 12, 2021 @ 6:58 pm

SUMMARY OF 7:00 PM CDT INFORMATION

LOCATION…21.3N 75.0W
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SE OF SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 485 MI…780 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1012 MB…29.89 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Granma
* The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* The southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach south and east to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 75.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and southern Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly in squalls to the northeast of the center. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Slow strengthening is expected Friday through Saturday, and Fred is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it nears the Florida Keys and south Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over the Turks and Caicos, Cuba and the eastern Bahamas…1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas…3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

From Friday into Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Florida Keys, the southern and central Florida Peninsula, and north towards the Big Bend of Florida, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By early next week, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight through Friday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Friday night. Wind gusts to tropical storm force may occur over portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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