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7 pm Advisory — Grace Packing 100 MPH Maximum Sustained Winds; Landfall Later Tonight On Mexican Mainland

| August 20, 2021 @ 8:50 pm

SUMMARY OF 7 PM CDT INFORMATION
LOCATION…20.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI…170 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…967 MB…28.55 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo

FORECAST DISCUSSION
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 95.7 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is forecast to move across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this evening, and then make landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast until Grace makes landfall, with rapid weakening expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft is 967 mb (28.55 inches).

HAZARDS TO LAND
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast within the hurricane warning area near and north of where the center makes landfall tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by this evening.

RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi…6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected today through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides.

SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline today and continue into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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