Tropical Storm Nicholas Forms: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Issued for Parts of the Texas Coast

Air Force Hurricane Hunters have indeed found enough evidence to designate the system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Nicholas.

The forecast track of Tropical Storm Nicholas, showing expected tropical storm force winds in light blue and strong tropical storm force winds in darker blue.

It is expected to track north northwest, passing near Brownsville, going back over water, and hitting the Middle Texas Coast around Port O’Connor Tuesday then curving to the northeast into southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana where the steering currents will break down and leave it stranded.

The official forecast takes the intensity to a peak of 65 mph. That is in line with most of the intensity models, none of which carry to hurricane intensity at this time.

The result could be extremely heavy rains for some portions of Southeast Texas and southwestern Louisiana, with well over a foot possible in some locations.

Here is the complete text of the advisory:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021

…TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO…
…TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS…

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…20.5N 94.8W
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI…650 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Texas from
the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Barra el Mezquital northward to the U.S./Mexico border.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from the
Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Texas from
north of Port Aransas to High Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas
* Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 20.5 North,
longitude 94.8 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest
near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A slower northward or north-northeastward
motion is forecast by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the
the coasts of northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Monday, and
approach the south or central Texas coast Monday night or early
Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast while Nicholas approaches
the northwestern Gulf coast during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, across
portions of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana today through the
middle of the week. This rainfall may produce areas of flash, urban,
and isolated river flooding.

Over the eastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas
rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected today into Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island, TX…2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay,
Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay…2-4

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas by Monday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday night or early Tuesday.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical