1 pm Advisory — Nicholas Continues to Move Erratically Northward Toward the South Texas Shoreline

| September 13, 2021 @ 1:26 pm

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…26.9N 96.5W
ABOUT 70 MI…115 KM SSE OF PORT ARANSAS, TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM S OF PORT O’CONNOR, TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach, Louisiana
* Corpus Christi Bay

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 96.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will continue to pass just offshore of the coast of south Texas this afternoon and move onshore along the coast of central Texas later this evening.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast this afternoon and evening, and Nicholas could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwest Gulf coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX

Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Port O’Connor to San Luis Pass, TX including Matagorda Bay…3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
Baffin Bay to Port O’Connor, TX…2-4 ft
Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay…2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay…1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon or this evening.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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