A Severe Thunderstorm Watch May Be Issued Over the Next Couple of Hours

From the Storm Prediction Center.

SUMMARY… A couple damaging gusts are possible with ongoing isolated
storms over the next couple of hours. A more concentrated risk of
damaging gusts may materialize if storms can merge into a line later
this evening. Conditions are being monitored for the need of a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending storm mergers.

DISCUSSION… Isolated pulse-cellular storms have recently matured
across eastern MS into AL over the last couple of hours per latest
MRMS mosaic radar imagery. One pulse storm along the Dallas/Lowndes
County, AL line has exhibited near 1.5 inch diameter via the MRMS
MESH algorithm, with a 55 kt gust, recently observed per KSEM ASOS.
Though deep-layer shear is weak, the ongoing storms are thriving in
a 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE environment, driven by 70+F surface dewpoints
and near 100F surface temperatures. 20Z RAP forecast soundings
(valid for 22Z) shows a well-mixed boundary layer, with 21Z
mesoanalysis depicting 8.5 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates. As such, the
more intense storm cores may experience enough evaporative cooling
to support damaging gusts. Given modest mid-level lapse rates, an
instance of 1+ inch hail cannot be ruled out.

At the moment, the severe threat is expected to be sparse given the
isolated nature of the storms. However, should storms cluster and
form a loosely organized MCS structure later this evening, the
damaging gust threat could become more prevalent. As such,
conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending MCS development.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather