Severe Storms Possible Tomorrow Night/Early Wednesday Morning

DRY TODAY: With a good supply of sunshine, we project a high in the mid 60s this afternoon across the northern half of Alabama… some South Alabama communities will see low 70s. Clouds increase tomorrow ahead of a storm system, and a few showers could break out by late afternoon as moisture levels rise quickly. The high tomorrow will be in the 67-71 degree range.

SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW NIGHT: We have potential for strong to severe thunderstorms over Alabama tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning. SPC has defined an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) for the northwest corner of the state around the Shoals… there is a “slight risk” (level 2/5) as far east as Decatur, Jasper, and Livingston, and a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) over to Fort Payne, Calera, Jackson and Mobile.

A marginal risk (level 1/5) continues for Southeast Alabama after 6:00 a.m. Wednesday for Southeast Alabama.

TIMING: A few severe storms are possible across far West Alabama as early as 5-8 p.m. tomorrow, but the core threat for the western counties of the state will come from 8 p.m. until 2 a.m. The severe weather threat will shift into East and Southeast Alabama during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday.

THREATS: Storms over West Alabama tomorrow night will be capable of producing large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes. The threat for East Alabama is primary from strong thunderstorm winds.

WIND: Away from thunderstorms, pressure gradient winds will average 15-25 mph tomorrow night, with potential for gusts to 40 mph in spots.

RAIN: Rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely; flooding issues are not expected.

BE PREPARED: For most of Alabama, the core threat will come during the late night/early morning hours, meaning you have to have a reliable way of getting warnings if they are needed. The best way is a NOAA Weather Radio; every home and business needs one. Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone, and have the free ABC 33/40 weather app installed. Know the safe place in your home, and have helmets for everyone there. And, if you live in a mobile home, know the location of the nearest shelter, or business that is open 24/7 that can provide shelter, and also know the quickest way to get there. Have transportation available.

We should note there is some uncertainty in how this event unfolds tomorrow night. Best chance situation is that a large area of rain develops tomorrow night before the arrival of the best dynamic support. This could keep instability values low and really reduce the risk of severe storms. But, there is no guarantee that happens and we all have to be ready.

REST OF THE WEEK: The sky will clear Wednesday, and colder air arrives with a high in the 50s over the northern half of the state. Most places across North/Central Alabama will drop into the 27-32 degree range early Thursday morning, with mid 30s for South Alabama. Thursday and Friday will feature a sunny sky; the high Thursday will be in the 50s, followed by 60s Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moisture levels will rise, and we will need to mention the chance of showers over the northern half of the state both Saturday and Sunday. For now it doesn’t look like a big rain event, and the weekend certainly won’t be a washout. Highs over the weekend will be in the 67-73 degree range with more clouds than sun.

NEXT WEEK: Global models suggest chance of showers in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, followed by cooler, drier air over the latter half of the week. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s Monday and Tuesday, then in the 50s and 60s Wednesday through Friday. See the daily Weather Briefing video for maps, graphics, and more details.

ON THIS DATE IN 1921: New England was in the midst of a four-day ice storm, their worst of record. Ice was more than three inches thick in many places following the storm, and property damage was in the millions of dollars. Northern New England received heavy snow with more than two feet reported in some areas. Overnight freezing rains continued through the day at Worcester, MA while the wind increased to a gale. Streets become impassable even on foot, and whole towns were plunged into darkness without communication. The storm caused 20 million dollars damage to power lines, telephone lines and trees.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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