Tropical Depression 15 Forms…The Latest on Margot, and Lee’s Impacts on New England

Invest 97L in the Atlantic is showing enough organization this morning to be classified as a tropical depression.

It is expected to become a tropical storm by the afternoon and a hurricane by Sunday. It should become a major category three hurricane by Sunday evening and reach peak intensity by Monday morning.

There will likely be a period of rapid intensification in there in order to get the storm to major hurricane status quickly like that.

The storm will be pretty much on a beeline to the northwest moving it in the general direction of Bermuda. It is too early to tell what the threat will be to the island nation, but it could be significant by late next week.

Most of the ensemble members from the global models carry what will be Hurricane Nigel to the east of Bermuda by about 150-250 miles, which would be good news.

Winds have been gusting to tropical storm force with Hurricane Lee at L.F. Wade International Airport in Bermuda since Wednesday evening. A peak wind gust of 62 mph was recorded last night around 10 p.m. Winds are still gusting to around 45 mph today there. The barometer is now rising there after bottoming out at 29.43 inches of mercury just before 2 a.m. this morning.

Hurricane Lee is steaming toward a landfall in Nova Scotia tomorrow afternoon as a 65-70 mph tropical storm. It is currently about 400 miles south southeast of Boston. Its western semicircle will begin affecting eastern Massachusetts with tropical storm force winds by this evening. Winds tonight through tomorrow morning will be sustained at 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph on Nantucket and the Cape. Boston may see tropical storm force gusts but no sustained tropical storm force winds. The Maine coast generally east of Portland will begin to feel tropical storm force winds early Saturday morning. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for eastern Mass, the coasts of New Hampshire, and much of eastern Maine.

Eastport Maine could see gusts to 70 mph tomorrow afternoon when their worst conditions occur. Winds will gust to tropical storm force into Sunday morning there

Tropical Storm Margot is a non-factor over the North Central Atlantic. It will become post-tropical by late Tuesday.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical