A Comprehensive Look at Tropical Storm Helene at 4:30 p.m.

OVERVIEW:
Tropical Storm Helene continues to gradually organize this afternoon. Deep convection is filling in around the center, and the storm’s central pressure has dropped to 995 mb, indicating intensification is underway. Helene is expected to strengthen as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico and could become a major hurricane before making landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast. Impacts are likely to extend well beyond the center due to the storm’s large size, with significant effects expected across the southeastern United States.

FAST FACTS AT 4 PM CDT
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…19.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI…245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI…245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

CHANGES IN WARNINGS:

– A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass, Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

– A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

– The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo Catoche to Tulum.

– A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line.

– A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coasts of Florida and Georgia from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River, and for Lake Okeechobee.

Here are the current warnings:

HURRICANE HUNTERS
The Hurricane Hunters, consisting of aircraft from both NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve, play a crucial role in monitoring Tropical Storm Helene. They provide real-time data on the storm’s intensity, structure, and trajectory. This evening, two NOAA planes and one Air Force plane are scheduled to fly into Helene around 6 to 7 p.m. CDT. One of these flights will be a high-altitude mission designed to gather upper-air data to help refine the model forecasts. The other two missions will involve low-level penetrations into the storm’s center to collect critical measurements of wind speed, pressure, and temperature. This data will be essential for updating the storm’s forecast track and intensity, providing a clearer picture of Helene’s potential impact as it approaches the Gulf Coast. The information gathered by these missions will be integrated into the evening forecast updates, helping to improve the accuracy of predictions as Helene moves closer to landfall.

TRACK:
Helene has recently taken a west-northwest jog but is expected to turn northwestward tonight and then northward on Wednesday. The storm’s center could pass close to the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula early Wednesday before accelerating northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast brings Helene ashore near the Florida Big Bend area late Thursday, with a potential landfall between Apalachicola and Cedar Key. A fast forward speed will carry the storm inland, spreading impacts well into Georgia and the Carolinas by Friday.

FORECAST INTENSITY:
Helene is currently a tropical storm with 45 kt (50 mph) winds but is forecast to rapidly intensify over the next 48 hours. With warm sea surface temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and strong upper-level divergence, Helene is expected to become a major hurricane with winds of 115 mph (100 kt) before reaching the Florida coast. The storm could maintain this intensity until landfall, posing a significant threat to the region.

TALLAHASSEE FORECAST:
Devastating wind gusts of up to 130 mph are possible in the Tallahassee area. Easterly tropical storm force winds (39 mph) are expected to begin on Thursday around 3 PM CDT, with storm force winds (58 mph) arriving by 7 PM CDT. Northeasterly hurricane force winds (74 mph) could arrive near 9 PM CDT. The highest wind speeds in Tallahassee are forecast to occur near 9 PM CDT, with sustained winds from the Northeast potentially reaching 111 mph and gusts near 134 mph. There is a strong possibility that Tallahassee will experience the eye wall of the storm, with the passage of the eye expected around 10 PM CDT on Thursday. Winds should decrease below hurricane force shortly after the eye passes, with sustained winds falling below tropical storm force after 3 AM CDT. Gusts above tropical storm force may persist for several more hours thereafter.

Wind damage in Tallahassee is expected to be extensive, with structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes is likely. Damage will be accentuated by large airborne projectiles, and many roads could be impassable due to large debris, especially in urban or heavily wooded areas. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes may become impassable. Power and communication outages will be widespread due to falling trees and other damage to the infrastructure. The total rainfall forecast for the Tallahassee area over the next 5 days is around 7.3 inches, but this amount can vary significantly.

This is kind of the worst case scenario for places which experience the eyewall and eye of the hurricane. Substitute any location from Panama City to Cedar Key in that blank and residents and visitors there could experience these conditions. Plus other impacts as described below…

Here is an excellent roll up report of forecasted wind impacts for various locations BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY…

IMPACTS:

WIND:
Helene is projected to bring hurricane-force winds to the Florida Big Bend region, with gusts up to 130 mph near the eyewall. Tropical storm conditions could extend well inland into Georgia and South Carolina, with wind gusts of 60-80 mph possible in these areas. Widespread power outages and wind damage are expected along the path of the storm, especially in the eastern half of the storm’s track.

STORM SURGE:
Storm surge is expected to be one of the most dangerous impacts from Helene. Life-threatening surge of 10 to 15 feet is possible in the Big Bend area, including St. Marks, Cedar Key, and Steinhatchee. The entire west coast of Florida, including Tampa Bay, could see significant inundation with a surge of 5 to 8 feet. Residents in these areas should heed evacuation orders and take all necessary precautions.

RAIN:
Helene will bring heavy rain across the Southeastern United States, with the heaviest amounts expected along and east of its path. Rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches are possible in the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle areas, extending into southern Georgia and the Carolinas. This could lead to widespread flash flooding, especially in areas already saturated from previous rain events. River flooding will also be a concern, with the potential for minor to moderate flooding and isolated major river flooding.

TORNADOES:
As is common with landfalling hurricanes, there will be a risk of tornadoes in the northeastern quadrant of the storm. This threat will extend into North Florida, Southern Georgia, and the Carolinas on Thursday and Friday. Residents should stay alert for tornado warnings and have a plan to take shelter quickly.

ALABAMA IMPACTS:

CENTRAL ALABAMA:
A frontal boundary is expected to move into Central Alabama tonight, bringing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. On Wednesday, this boundary will interact with increasing moisture from Helene, resulting in heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches are expected east of I-65, with gusty winds of 30-40 mph possible Thursday night into Friday. While the strongest winds are expected to remain east of the forecast area, tropical storm force winds cannot be ruled out in southeastern portions of Central Alabama. Tornadoes are not expected to be a problem.

NORTH ALABAMA:
Rain is expected to begin Wednesday morning, supported by the stalled frontal boundary over the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day. Rain chances will decrease briefly Wednesday evening before impacts from Helene increase on Thursday. As the storm moves northeastward, rain and wind speeds will pick up, with gusts of 20-30 mph expected from Thursday into Friday. Northeastern Alabama may see the highest gusts and the heaviest rainfall. Rainfall from Wednesday night through Saturday morning could total 2-5 inches, which may lead to flash flooding, particularly in northeastern Alabama. This is in addition to 2-4 inches of rain expected with the cold front earlier in the week, making the region more susceptible to flooding. An enhanced convergence zone could develop as Helene interacts with an upper-level low, potentially leading to very efficient rainfall production and increasing the flash flooding threat on Friday. Monitor local forecasts closely and be prepared for possible flash flood warnings. Tornadoes are not expected to be a problem.

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA:
Southeast Alabama is expected to experience increasing impacts from Tropical Storm Helene starting on Thursday as the storm moves toward the coast. Heavy rainfall, with totals of 3 to 6 inches and locally higher amounts, will be the primary concern, leading to a significant risk of flash flooding and river flooding through Friday. Tropical storm force winds, with gusts up to 40-50 mph, are possible, especially in the southeastern counties closest to the Florida Panhandle. These winds could cause scattered tree damage and power outages. There is also a risk of isolated tornadoes on Thursday over Southeast Alabama, as Helene’s outer bands move through, mainly south of a line from Lafayette to Deatsville to Jackson in Clarke County. Residents should remain alert for rapidly changing weather conditions and be prepared for potential flooding and hazardous wind impacts.

FREQUENT UPDATES:
We will continue to provide frequent updates as more information becomes available, especially with the next round of reconnaissance flights scheduled for later this evening. Stay tuned for the latest on Helene, and make sure you have your hurricane plan in place.

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