Showers Possible Through Friday; Eyes On Rafael
SHOWERS TODAY: We note some light rain and sprinkles across parts of Alabama early this morning as moisture levels begin to rise across the southern U.S. and a front approaches from the west. We will mention the chance of scattered showers today, but rain amounts will be light and spotty. The sky will be occasionally cloudy, and the high will be in the 77-82 degree range, well above average for early November.
There will be some chance of showers and storms on daily basis for the rest of the week, but rain distribution won’t be very even due to the scattered nature of the rain. Not much sun; highs will remain in the mid to upper 70s for most places.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Forecast confidence remains very thanks to huge model differences concerning the tropical system in the Gulf (Rafael). The American GFS global model brings a weak tropical low into the Central Gulf Coast with potential for a widespread, beneficial rain event for Alabama Saturday. However, the reliable European global model shows the system far to the southwest, moving in a general direction towards Mexico or far South Texas.
We will continue to mention a good chance of rain some Saturday, but the amount we receive all depends on how the tropical situation evolves. The weather will trend drier Sunday… highs over the weekend will be in the 70s. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.
TROPICS: This morning Tropical Storm Rafael, with winds of 60 mph, is about 105 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. The system is moving to the northwest at 13 mph.
The NHC forecast has Rafael coming over western Cuba as a category one hurricane tomorrow, followed by rapid weakening over the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week. It is forecast to be south of the Louisiana coast Friday night, but forecast uncertainty remains high due to the wide range of solutions with models due to differences in how they handle the upper air pattern.
FOOTBALL: It remains to be seen how Rafael will impact the Alabama/LSU game in Baton Rouge Saturday night. Best possible case is a dry, pleasant evening with temperatures falling into the 60s; worst case is a soaking tropical rain. For now we will mention just a chance of showers… forecast confidence will increase in coming days.
ON THIS DATE IN 1991: Nearly 3,000 individuals were killed in the Philippines when Tropical Storm Thelma produced massive flooding. The storm was the second major disaster of the year as Mount Pinatubo violently erupted on June 12th.
ON THIS DATE IN 2002: An F2 tornado moved through Abbeville in Southeast Alabama. Several homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed; one person was killed and 20 others were injured. Abbeville High School was destroyed.
Look for the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Weather Xtreme Videos
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
If you enjoyed this article, subscribe to receive more just like it.
