A Soggy Airmass Hangs Around

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Looks like J.B. was burning the midnight oil… scroll down and read his post about the fall color situation. Very interesting…

The precipitable water on last night’s 00Z sounding from the Shelby County Airport remained over two inches (2.08), so it looks like we will be dealing with scattered to numerous showers and storms again today across most of Alabama. Due to light winds aloft, the storms won’t be in a hurry to move, and some neighborhoods will get soaked. We actually had a flash flood warning for Shelby County late yesterday; the rain total in the Weatherly subdivision, just east of Pelham, was 3.72″.

While the primary window for rain and storms will be from noon until midnight, a few might show up during the morning hours. Most communities will fail to reach 90 today due to the clouds and showers, another reason for celebration.

THE DAYS AHEAD: I really don’t think the weather changes too much through Friday. The 00Z run of the GFS tries to slip some drier air down into the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama by Friday and the weekend, but the upper support for the surface front to the north will remain well north of here, and I doubt if any serious drying takes place this far south. So, for the Labor Day weekend, we will be dodging scattered showers and storms Saturday through Monday. This means the possibility of storms around some high school football stadiums Friday night, and college stadiums Saturday evening. We will have a more specific football forecast on the afternoon discussion.

Highs over the weekend will be in the 86 to 90 degree range.

LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to back away from the idea of any big intrusion of cool Canadian air through mid-month. We always look forward to the first good cold front of the fall, when highs drop into the 70s and low in the 40s. But, no sign of that now on the GFS through September 13. Quite frankly, the tropics will probably be the place where you will find some interesting action….

*A wave is moving into Central America and Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula this morning… interaction with land should prevent any development in that region.

*A tropical wave in the mid-Atlantic around longitude 45W is moving along nicely, maintaining an identity. As it moves into warmer water, there is some chance this will become a tropical depression today. The computer models have locked onto the system, and all of them move it into the Caribbean in a few days with no sign of any northward turn.

*A surface low continues about 150 miles east of Charleston, South Carolina. This thing is drifting south, and it has some potential to develop in coming days as well.

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