Rain to Start 2011

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I don’t think the weather on the first day of a new year really tells you anything about the weather to come, but it sure looks like we are going to begin 2011 on a wet note. The high pressure surface system that has brought us a couple of days of mostly dry weather has migrated east into the Atlantic with a strong southerly fetch all the way from the Gulf Coast to Southeast Canada. This is supplying a bunch of moisture for the next system to work on along with a good deal of warmth. Temperatures across Central Alabama this morning are more typical of daytime highs and 40-degree values extend up the Mississippi River all the way to Chicago.

In the upper atmosphere, the deep trough and closed low over the southern Rockies has begun its move eastward and northward. The closed low is headed into Canada while the surface low follows along dragging a cold front into the Southeast. The rain ahead of the cold front should affect Central Alabama beginning late today across the western sections as the rain and front move slowly but steadily across Alabama on Saturday. The slow movement along with the abundance of moisture means that heavy rain is possible for some locales. Rainfall amounts are likely to be near 2 inches with some higher amounts in the stronger storms or where training of echoes occurs.

In addition to the heavy rain, there is a marginal threat of severe storms – mostly likely damaging wind although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out completely. The main threat is to our west, but the SPC has the western half of Alabama in a slight risk area for today which extends into the morning hours of Saturday. Because the strongest dynamics are very far north, this is one of those close call situations. Be sure to stay up with the Blog for the latest weather information as the gang here monitors future developments with this system.

The front should move through Central Alabama by Sunday morning allowing for an end to the rain if not the clouds. The upper flow changes quickly to a nearly zonal pattern on Monday keeping us dry. While moisture is likely to be increasing from the southwest, we should remain dry on Tuesday, too.

This is where we see a big change from the GFS forecasts from yesterday. The 06Z GFS now develops another fairly deep trough across the eastern half of the country. Some strong short waves moving down the west side of the trough Wednesday and Thursday will deepen the trough allowing another round of cold weather by Thursday and Friday for the Southeast US and the eastern half of the US. Some trailing moisture also suggests snow potential for Kentucky and Tennessee, but this is a week away and verging on voodoo country.

Out in voodoo, the GFS suggests a return to zonal flow and mild weather around the 10th and 11th, but now there is another cold spell at 372 hours with moisture to boot! This could mean an icing event for some location in the Southeast but it is also way, way out in voodoo and likely to change dramatically before we get there!

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Thanks for staying tuned to the Weather Xtreme Video. I plan to have the next edition posted by 7:30 or so tomorrow morning. Make it a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather