Snow/Ice Threat Sunday/Monday

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion…

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: The weather turns colder; we drop into the upper 20s by early tomorrow, and tomorrow’s high will be in the low to mid 40s as colder air drops into the state. The sky will remain generally sunny tomorrow.

WINTER STORM AHEAD: The NWS in Birmingham and Huntsville are issuing winter storm watches right now for much of Alabama ahead of this event, which still promises to bring a very significant amount of snow and ice to our state Sunday through Monday. Here is our projected time line:

SUNDAY MORNING: Precipitation moves into Southwest Alabama, most likely in the form of sleet and freezing rain. We do not expect any travel issues up this way (North-Central Alabama) Sunday morning, so travel to church shouldn’t be a problem, with the exception of West-Central Alabama, where communities like Linden, Demopolis, York, Livingston, and Butler could see some sleet, freezing rain, and maybe even a snow flakes before noon.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: This is when the big precipitation mass will make the move to the northeast, and a wintry mix will overspread much of Alabama by Sunday evening. Initially, we expect a wintry mix of sleet and snow. Surface temperatures should be a little above freezing, so most roads will be generally wet during the afternoon, but some icy spots on bridges could very well begin after 3:00 p.m.

SUNDAY NIGHT: This will be the most intense part of the storm… especially from 9:00 p.m. until 6:00 a.m. Monday. Snow will become heavy at times across North Alabama, with potential for snow mixed with freezing rain to the south. Driving will be difficult, if not impossible Sunday night into Monday morning for much of North and Central Alabama.

MONDAY: The precipitation will wind down by midday Monday. This is not a classic deepening low as it moves northeast out of the northern Gulf; instead this low will be weakening, so we might see the precipitation trail off as light rain or drizzle during the day Monday.

ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL: Below is our new accumulation potential graphic. Understand, this is potential, and we all know that the snow totals won’t change along the nice, straight lines you see on the map. But, it gives you a good guideline on our thinking.

For areas north of U.S. 278, we are projecting 3-6 inches of snow. Pretty much all snow, with no major risk of freezing rain. This is for areas along and north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden.

For the I-20 corridor (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston), it sure seems like the “sweet spot” will be close by, and we have upped the projection to 4-8 inches. Most places will be closer to 4 inches, but there could be some 8 inch totals in spots, especially across East Alabama’s higher terrain. We need to mention there could also be some periods of freezing rain during the event, meaning a chance of some ice accumulation. The greatest risk of ice will be south of Birmingham, and there could be enough for some scattered power outages where ice accumulates on trees and power lines. We note the 18Z NAM, just in, suggests 10 inches of snow for Birmingham. That is NOT a forecast, but a reminder this is a very dynamic storm that could produce major winter weather issues for Alabama.

To the south, we could see some icing and light snow accumulation as far south as U.S. 84, or a line from Grove Hill to Monroeville to Evergreen to Dothan. Some of the 12Z model data suggests potential for significant icing along U.S. 80, or a line from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery. Again, some power outages are possible in this region as well.

We should note there isn’t much skill in forecasting specific areas where freezing rain will fall… we pretty much have to get the system on the board before we really know.

TRAVEL: Commercial air traffic will be slow Sunday night and Monday, and it is possible some airports in the heavier snow bands will have to close for a brief while to deice planes and runways, like Birmingham and Atlanta. Expect delays… and be aware that there will also be snow issues for Nashville and Memphis.

Travel by road will become difficult, if not impossible Sunday night into Monday morning. A number of businesses and schools have already closed, and it is likely that most everything will be shut down Monday due to the winter storm.

Conditions should improve Tuesday, but in the heavier snow and ice bands, there could be icy travel all the way through Tuesday morning.

ONCE AGAIN: There will be surprises with this system, and some people in Alabama will be delighted with the amount of snow they see, and others severely disappointed. That is the case with just about every winter storm around here. And, this forecast is certainly subject to change again, so keep an eye on the blog.

THANKS: To Bill Murray and Trey Nolen for getting the blog up and running with much greater capacity this afternoon. We have been hammered with record traffic today, and now we feel confident you won’t see the “high traffic mode”, or more outages. These guys have been working all morning on the issue so those of us providing the content can do our thing.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

Stay tuned to the blog for frequent updates through the duration of this major winter storm threat for Alabama…

Tags: winter storm

Category: Alabama's Weather