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A Little Cooler Today

| February 22, 2011 @ 5:56 am | 2 Replies

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COLD FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH: A cold front with little upper support slipped through North-Central Alabama basically with no fanfare early this morning. North of the front at 5:00 a.m…. Haleyville has dropped to 49 degrees, but south of the front Alexander City is 19 degrees warmer with 68. The cooler air wins the battle as temperatures will continue to fall for a few hours in the wake of the front, but the really cold air up north won’t bother us.

The sky will become mostly sunny today with a high in the mid 60s in most places. Humidity values will be lower, and as we have mentioned here in recent days, the wildfire danger will remain very high through mid-week. Tomorrow looks great with a good supply of sunshine; the morning will be chilly with most places starting the day in the mid to upper 30s, but we rise quickly into the upper 60s by afternoon. Some of the colder valleys might touch freezing briefly early tomorrow.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: No doubt the 00Z and 06Z model runs have come in much more aggressive with the next system to impact Alabama. Initially, I poo-pooed the severe weather threat, but now we are looking at SBCAPE values almost up to 1,000 j/kg Friday morning (based on the 06Z NAM), with better dynamic support as well. SPC has a slight risk of severe weather for Northwest Alabama Thursday evening, and we will certainly have to look at some potential for strong to severe storms along the way.

We should note some rain is possible Thursday morning as the front backs up and moves northward as a warm front… then the sun could break out Thursday afternoon pushing temperatures into the mid 70s. Then, the main threat of thunderstorms will come Thursday night into Friday morning. It is certainly not a classic severe weather setup, and with time the higher helicity values will move away from Alabama, but an isolated tornado threat is certainly possible over Northwest Alabama Thursday evening.

Rain amounts will vary from near one inch along the Tennessee border, to much smaller amounts near the Gulf Coast, and closer to the core of the ridge that has kept us so warm in recent days. The showers and storms should be out of the state by midday Friday.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday looks like a delightful day, with ample sunshine and a high around 70. But, on Sunday, showers are possible as another warm front moves northward. We should reach the mid 70s Sunday afternoon as the front pushes to the north.

NEXT WEEK: Another severe weather threat is possible early next week… way too early to be specific, but it still looks like Monday night could be the primary threat, perhaps lasting into early Tuesday morning. Models have backed off on the degree of cooling for the middle of next week, but I still think we could have one or two mornings with the threat of a freeze.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the notes on this week’s new episode.

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I have a weather program today down at Brent Elementary School in Bibb County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. And, don’t forget, we will be in St. Clair County tonight for Storm Alert 2011… the show will begin at Springville Middle School at 6:45… hope to see many of you there!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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