Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Saturday Night Snow?

| December 11, 2007 @ 5:59 am | 8 Replies

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

Let me first encourage you to scroll down to read Tim Coleman’s excellent discussion of this weekend setup and snow events in Alabama. Good stuff, and it should be required reading for all weather weenies.

Before we get to the weekend… lets talk short term stuff…

TODAY AND TOMORROW: More potential for record warmth.. highs in the 75 to 79 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds. The worst of the ice today back in the cold air will be in the general area from Kansas City to Chicago… watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the graphics.

THURSDAY: The big upper trough in the Southwest weakens and lifts north of Alabama, dragging a cold front into our state with a band of showers Thursday afternoon. Still doesn’t look like a big rain event; looks like most folks will see one-third of an inch of rain or less. Not good….

FRIDAY: The models are coming around and agreeing on a solution for the end of the week and the weekend which makes for a higher confidence forecast. A new upper trough will form over the Southwest U.S. on Friday, but instead of setting up shop and hanging around for days, this one comes right out. Here in Alabama, Friday will be dry but sharply colder. I think the GFS MOS remains way too warm; I have forecast a high in the low 50s here, which is about 10 degrees cooler than guidance.

WEEKEND STORM: The new upper trough spins up a surface low, that forms over far South Alabama Saturday, and moves rapidly to a point near Boston by Sunday. The track and strength of this surface low will determine who gets what over the weekend.

The last three runs of the GFS has been pretty consistent, so we will roll with that scenario for now. Rain should become widespread across Alabama during the day Saturday. We should be more excited about the rain potential; this might bring some one-half inch rains to much of the state, maybe more down in South Alabama where some healthy thunderstorms could be involved.

As the surface low pulls to the northeast, cold air will be pulled down into Alabama, coming across the snow and ice pack to the north, and there is a window for the rain to change to snow over the northern half of the state. For now, that window seems to be in the 4:00 p.m. to 12:00 midnight time frame. The chance of a big accumulation looks low at this moment because the system is moving so quickly, and the ground is so warm. But, some folks could get a dusting. Maybe a little more than that across the higher terrain of Northeast Alabama. And, your usual disclaimer here, we are very early in the game and all of this could change.

Sunday will be brisk and cold thanks to the departing storm; the GFS is printing a high of 46 here; we might have a hard time getting out of the 30s. We should be below freezing both Sunday and Monday morning.

LONG RANGE: I guess we can peek at Christmas… the GFS is now advertising a mild Christmas Day with some rain possible here, with another deep and cold upper trough over the Southwest U.S. with snow for the southern Rockies. All voodoo… don’t take that to the bank. We are just peeking.

OLGA: Yep, we have a sub-tropical storm near Puerto Rico… watch the Weather Xtreme video for info and all the graphics. Olga sounds like a mean woman.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Our new show for this week is up on the server; we talked with Melissa Lee’s dad (Melissa is a sports reporter/anchor here), who lives in Tulsa in the midst of all the ice. Very interesting show.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.

This morning I will be working on the Habitat for Humanity home sponsored by ABC 33/40 in Titusville… I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be up by 3:30 or so. This evening… I will be live at the Bruno’s on Alabama 150 at South Shades Crest Road in Hoover from our Hope for the Holidays Food Drive; stop by if you are in the neighborhood and say hello!

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About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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