The Wave Train Cranks Up

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

HOUSEKEEPING: I know that school is now out, and many folks are hitting the road for Christmas. If you are traveling, be careful out there. We will begin to scale back next week; I will keep producing two Weather Xtreme videos per day through tomorrow, but we will go on a holiday schedule next week with just one video daily, and that will be done by Brian Peters. I will take next week off, along with Jason Simpson, so Ashley Brand and Brian P. will handle TV duties, while J.B. and Bill Murray will be covering radio duties and the blog.

WILD RIDE AHEAD: There is a plethora of upper air waves that will impact Alabama during the next three weeks, making for a challenging and fun forecast. Strap in for a wild ride on the wave train.

TODAY: A nice rain event will take place across Alabama this afternoon and tonight. The NAM is printing 1.49″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is much drier with only 0.28″. The truth should be somewhere between those two values; we figure most places around here will get one-half to one inch. There could be some thunder involved, but no severe weather. SPC has only two Alabama counties in a slight risk; those would be Mobile and Baldwin, down on the coast.

TOMORROW: We will be in-between waves, so the sky should become partly sunny with a high in the mid 60s.

WEEKEND SYSTEM: The GFS continues to delay the arrival of our weekend system. There might be a shower around somewhere Saturday afternoon, but it sure looks like much of the day Saturday will be dry. We will have to watch for the ole wedge (cold air damming) to the east, but for now we will discount that and forecast a high in the 60s on Saturday.

The main rain event over the weekend will come in the 12:00 midnight Saturday to 12:00 noon Sunday time frame. The latest runs have tended slightly drier with this system, showing amounts close to one-half inch for Alabama. And, the severe weather threat is minimal with very little instability available. SPC has dropped the severe weather risk for Southwest Alabama as well.

As the rain moves out, north winds will bring in cooler air; we could begin the day around 60, but dropping into the 40s by afternoon.

CHRISTMAS OUTLOOK: Scroll down for Tim Coleman’s excellent discussion on model output… he has the chance of a white Christmas at 10 percent… which, of course means, his chance of no snow is 90 percent. With all of the model madness, there is very little chance of nailing the specific weather we can expect next week at this point.

The 06Z GFS suggests Monday will be dry and cool; some light rain is possible on Christmas Day Tuesday, and that rain becomes more likely and widespread by Wednesday. All we can do is say “stay tuned”…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.

I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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