Improving Weather Today

Good morning from Troy, AL. There won’t be a video this morning because of limited connectivity, but will try to do a written map discussion.

The day is starting off gray and chilly with temperatures in the mid 30s. Clouds and some fog are holding tough and I expect some locations will have a hard time to clear. Satellite suggests the first clearing will actually come across East Central Alabama where holes were showing up in the cloud cover. But overall, look for some sunshine this afternoon. Drier air exists just a couple of thousand feet off the surface, so if we can get some mixing, the fog and clouds should dissipate. And with some sun we should recover temperature-wise reaching the mid 50s this afternoon. And won’t those temperatures seem nice.

The recovery should continue into Monday as the surface high migrates by and we come under a ridge aloft. The afternoon highs should climb into the lower 60s with good sunshine. Moisture should increase dramatically late Monday and into Tuesday ahead of the next rain producing system.

A strong short wave will move by just to our north with a surface front dragged through the state on Tuesday. Some of the storms could be strong with rainfall of one half to three-quarters of an inch. And the rain should exit Central Alabama by the early morning hours of Wednesday.

The front will reach the central Gulf before beginning a trek back north Thursday as the next and more potent storm heads our way. With the possibility of deep low level moisture, a strong upper level trough that could be negatively tilted, and a strong jet, all elements could be coming together for a significant round of severe weather across the Southeast and Alabama on Friday. As James points out regularly, we’ve got to get by the Tuesday system first, but this one will bear watching. Unfortunately, model differences are showing up which they often do, but this one will bear a watchful eye. Rainfall with the late week system could be in the one to two inch range which would certainly help the drought situation.

By Saturday, the system is well gone and temperatures cool off but not dramatically. It would appear that we should get back toward typical early February values or slightly above those.

It looks like a nice Saturday with clouds and rain possible again on Sunday as the next system begins to get its act together. But this is verging on voodoo country and we’ve got to see our way clear of the first two systems. But the overriding trend is the continuation of a very progressive pattern with a new system every two to three days.

Into real voodoo country, the GFS promises a cool down for the 6th and 7th of February with another round of rain around the 8th and 9th. The GFS even shows a potential winter problem late on the 9th as that surface low exits the region as cold air arrives. Dry, cold weather rules around the 10th moderating quickly by the 11th before another system approaches on the 12th. Little rest between systems in the foreseeable future.

STORM ALERT 2008: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama begins next week! Our first stop will at Oak Grove High School on Thursday January 31; from there will have shows in Anniston, Northport, Lineville, and Moody. See the details on this year’s show, and the schedule here. We hope to see you along the way!

James Spann will be back in the saddle with the next Weather Xtreme Video around 7 am tomorrow morning. I hope you have a great Sunday whatever the weather. God bless.

-Brian-

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