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Looks like the warming trend will be challenged somewhat especially for those in the eastern portion of Alabama. The challenge is coming from the development of the Wedge or cold air damming. This usually sets up when a strong high pressure system becomes situated over New York and Pennsylvania allowing an easterly flow to bring cooler air and usually some moisture around the southern end of the Appalachians. The influence of the wedge will be less for those in the western portions of the state, so that makes the forecast for Central Alabama a bit of a challenge for the next couple of days.
There is not a lot of change to the overall surface and upper air pattern for the next couple of days, so we are likely to remain mostly cloudy with temperatures warmer in the western sections and cooler in the eastern sections. The Mount Cheaha Skycam already showed a lot of clouds and the surface map shows a well established easterly flow.
A new trough begins to take shape late Tuesday and into Wednesday which will drive a good cold front across the central portion of the country. But the front is not likely to make it through the Southeast US, so from Wednesday through next weekend it appears that the forecast will need to include some small chances of showers. Best chances are likely to remain northwest of us along that frontal boundary.
In the upper atmosphere, the trough develops nicely according to the GFS with a closed low cutting off over Southeast Kansas. This is where the models depart company as the European does not share this particular feature with the GFS. So confidence is not high in the forecast for the latter part of the week. With the closed low over the South Central US, we will remain on the wetter side of the system keeping us somewhat unsettled for the latter half of the week and into the weekend.
Tropics have become a little quieter with no named storms currently on the board. A somewhat concentrated area of cloudiness has just emerged off the African continent and it will bear watching. Shear ahead of the system is forecast to increase somewhat, so development will be slow to occur. NHC places a 30 percent chance on the system becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. We’re going to have a long time to watch this one since it is so far out there.
Long range forecasts suggest the closed low sticking around through next weekend and into the very early part of next week. After that the GFS develops a large ridge in the middle of the country keeping us dry.
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-Brian-
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