Wet Through Tomorrow
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GOOD RAIN EVENT FOR ALABAMA: We are projecting rain amounts in the one to two inch range for the northern half of Alabama over the next 36 hours, making this our most significant rain event since September 20. The 00Z NAM is printing 1.13″ for Birmingham, while the GFS remains wetter at 1.41″.
Early this morning rain was rather light and spotty, but the radar will be much more active late today, tonight, and tomorrow with the approach of better dynamic support.
STRONG STORMS? SPC has extreme West-Central Alabama in a slight risk for severe weather late tonight, and then tomorrow there is a slight risk (their standard severe weather risk) for parts of South Alabama. The NAM shows a peak surface based CAPE here of 572 j/kg tomorrow, which is respectable… 0-3 km helicity values remain generally under 200 m2/s2… and the peak 850 wind speeds hover around 30 mph (low level jet). So, certainly nothing overwhelming, but a severe storm or two is not totally out of the question tonight or tomorrow. We will keep a close eye on the radar, but a major severe weather issue is not likely with these numbers.
COLDER THURSDAY: The rain moves out of the state tomorrow night, and cold air moves in briefly for Thursday and Friday. The sky becomes partly sunny Thursday with a high around 60 along with a cool north breeze. Then, by Friday morning, most places will see a low in the 30-35 degree range with frost. Friday stays cool and dry with a sunny sky and a high around 60.
WEEKEND WARM-UP: With the persistent upper ridge over the Gulf that will do its best to move north, cold air shots won’t stay long around here. We warm into the mid 60s Saturday, followed by low 70s Sunday with a partly sunny sky both days. The 06Z GFS hints we might have enough moisture for isolated showers Sunday, but nothing widespread.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: The ridge wins Monday and Tuesday, meaning mostly dry and warm weather around here with highs in the low to mid 70s. Showers finally reach Alabama by Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day, but there is little dynamic support left, so for now rain looks to be rather light. See the Weather Xtreme video for complete Thanksgiving week details and travel ideas if you will be hitting the road.
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I will be in Clay County this morning speaking to the students at Clay County Christian Academy in Ashland. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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