A Few Strong Storms Possible
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RIGHT NOW: Showers continue over much of Alabama this afternoon, mostly light to moderate. We do note a few heavier showers are over West Alabama at mid-afternoon, and we are beginning to see some lightning showing up as well. The coverage and intensity of showers and storms will continue to increase tonight as upper support approaches from the west.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: Occasional showers and storms will continue, with potential for strong storms. Instability values are generally a bit higher in model output, with most of them showing over 500 j/kg of surface based CAPE over North/Central Alabama tonight and tomorrow. Not overwhelming, but certainly sufficient values to make you pay attention to the radar. There will also be a decent degree of low level storm relative helicity (over 200 m2/s2), meaning sustained updrafts are very possible.
So, while we don’t expect a major severe weather problem, a severe storm or two is certainly possible. SPC has parts of Central and East Alabama in a slight severe weather risk tomorrow, generally for areas east of a line from Guntersville to Tuscaloosa to Mobile. We will keep a close eye on radar for sure.
If we do have a severe storm, the greatest risk is from hail and straight line winds, I would say the tornado threat is quite low.
HOW MUCH RAIN? Still looks like a good one to two inch rain for much of Alabama. The 12Z NAM is printing 1.13″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is showing 0.96″. The QPF chart from NCEP is wetter with 1 to 2 inches along the I-20 corridor. No doubt this will be our biggest rain here since September 20.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The weather turns much colder. The GFS is now printing a high of only 56 degrees on Thursday with a cool north wind along with a clearing sky. By early Friday, most places should be in the 30-35 degree range with frost. Then, Friday looks sunny and cool with a high near 60.
OUR WEEKEND: The roller coaster ride continues as we warm up over the weekend. Look for mid 60s Saturday, and low 70s Sunday with a partly sunny sky both days. Looks like we will need to bring in the risk of widely scattered showers on Sunday with a good increase in low level moisture, but with warm air aloft rain should be rather light and spotty.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: No major change… the weather looks very mild Monday through Wednesday with highs between 70 and 75. Any showers Monday and Tuesday should be widely spaced thanks to the upper ridge on the Gulf Coast nosing in here from the south. Showers should increase by Wednesday night into Thanksgiving Day with a weakening cold front, but rain amounts probably won’t be all that high. See the Weather Xtreme video for complete details and all the graphics.
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I had a great time today visiting the kids at Clay County Christian Academy in Ashland… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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