Unsettled Weather Through Wednesday

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ON THE MAPS: A stalled, wavy surface front is dropped over North Alabama this morning, and to the west a strong short wave is over Texas. This combination will keep a chance of showers and storms in our forecast for the next 72 hours, with temperatures remaining well above average for early January in Alabama.

This morning at daybreak, the bulk of the showers and storms on radar are over the central part of the state, south of I-20. A few of the overnight storms were strong with heavy rain and small hail in a few spots.

Overall our weather won’t change much today, with occasional showers and a few strong storms. The high will be well into the 60s.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: With the approach of the wave over Texas, dynamic support will improve for thunderstorms. The greatest chance of stronger storms will come late tomorrow, tomorrow night, and maybe even into Wednesday morning. SPC has defined a standard “slight risk” of severe weather for the southwest corner of Alabama around Mobile. A classic winter case of high shear, but very little surface based instability. But, these setups can be problematic, and an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out across the southwest part of the state late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Up this way, the risk of severe weather is pretty small, but we will watch radar trends closely in case models are underestimating the available instability. The NAM actually does bring some surface instability in here Wednesday morning… see the Weather Xtreme video for details. Seems like the best chance of stronger storms here will be from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 9:00 a.m. Wednesday.

COLDER AIR RETURNS: We turn sharply colder Thursday and Friday. The chance of showers with the arrival of the Arctic air on Thursday for now looks small, and Friday will be dry. We will struggle to get out of the 30s on Friday, with early morning lows mostly in the 18-25 degree range both Friday and Saturday morning. As usual, the ECMNWF seems to be handling the cold air outbreak better.

WEEKEND PEEK: After the quick hitting cold shot Friday into Saturday morning, temperatures begin to moderate over the weekend, as we warm into the 40s Saturday, and the 50s Sunday. The 06Z GFS brings surface wave through the northern Gulf of Mexico and shows rain rain over Alabama Sunday, but the ECMWF shows a surface high over the Gulf with a dry pattern, and we will roll with that dry solution for now. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for details.

LONG RANGE: The Arctic Oscillation (AO) wants to go negative later this month, which should bring some very cold air down into the “lower 48”, but the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) stays neutral to positive, meaning it could very well be a case where the western states really get the cold air. The operational GFS shows no major, long lasting cold snaps here through 15 days, and no signs of any snow or ice issues. But, the season is young.

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I will be over in Calhoun County this morning doing a weather program at Alexandria Elementary School…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: showers

Category: Alabama's Weather