Calm Today; Moist Air Returns Tomorrow
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DRY AND PLEASANT TODAY: The air is cool and crisp this morning, with early morning temperatures generally in the upper 30s and low 40s across the great state of Alabama. We warm into the low to mid 60s today with a good supply of sunshine through scattered clouds.
But, the weather changes quickly. Clouds return tomorrow, along with low level moisture, and a few showers could begins to break our across the state in the warm air advection pattern.
THURSDAY: An upper trough moving out of Texas in the southern branch of the jet stream will bring our next organized round of rain and storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. SPC has defined their standard “slight risk” of severe thunderstorms across South Alabama, the western part of the Florida Panhandle, South Mississippi, and Southeast Louisiana. It does not include any part of North Alabama now.
There will be a little low level instability up this way, but the higher shear values will be down south thanks to the low latitude nature of the upper trough. Lapse rates are marginal, so any severe weather threat for the northern half of the state at this point looks low, and nothing like the dynamic situation we had during the pre-dawn hours yesterday.
The higher EHI (energy helicity index) values remain near the coast, and SPC’s outlook looks good here.
If there is an issue, it could very well be flash flooding; rain amounts up to two inches are possible, and the ground is pretty saturated after the past two rain events.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Rain ends very early Friday, followed by a clearing sky. And, temperatures return to where they should be for this time of the year, with a high in the 50s with a cool breeze. The weekend will be cool and dry; expect a good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 50-55 degree range, and morning lows somewhere between 28 and 33.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Medium range guidance hints the next chance of rain will come toward the middle part of next week. And, as we get into February, the NAO is trending downward, but still no sign of any strong negative spike. But, a neutral NAO would sure suggest a better chance of colder air getting down in here at times… and we see that on the operational GFS. Take some time and see the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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I have a weather program today at 1:00 at Briarwood Christian School…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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