Rain Chances Rise Tomorrow
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STILL WARM: We should reach the low 80s this afternoon with a partly sunny sky; we might see a shower or two on radar this afternoon, but anything that forms should be widely spaced.
RAIN AT TIMES TOMORROW: We are finally getting better clarity from computer model output, making for a higher confidence forecast. The GFS and the NAM (and the ECMWF) are showing an increased risk of showers and storms across our state tomorrow as the upper ridge weakens. The sky will be generally cloudy, with one to two hours of rain likely during the day. Severe weather is not expected, and the showers should taper off greatly once the sun goes down. Because of the clouds and showers, the high will drop back into the 70s.
THE WEEKEND: Looks like the NAM was on it all the way; now the GFS and the ECMWF are coming around to the drier solution for Saturday, which is great news for those attending the Tuscaloosa Air Show, and the events at the Barber MotorSports Park. The day now looks generally warm and mostly dry with only a few isolated showers; afternoon temperatures should reach the low to mid 80s. Sunday will be warm and dry with a high in the mid 80s, close to record levels for the first day of April in our state.
SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK? Model consistency has been poor, but one way or another a strong upper trough should spin up a surface low over northern Arkansas late Monday, and SPC has placed much of the Lower Mississippi Valley region, including the western half of Alabama, in a severe weather risk for Monday, Monday night, and the pre-dawn hours Tuesday. The 00Z GFS suggests the main threat in Alabama would come late Monday night into early Tuesday morning… a setup for burning the midnight oil in the weather office. Way, way too early to be really specific here, but something to watch in coming days.
LATER NEXT WEEK: The idea of a frost or freeze is again off the table based on the latest GFS and ECMWF, as it keeps the cold air north of here. But, don’t be shocked if that changes again. Anytime we have a pattern change the models will really struggle. I still believe there is a decent chance we will have at least one morning with frost or a freeze potential during the first half of April, and growers will still need to monitor forecasts closely. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.
AT THE BEACH: Expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend, with a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs along the coast will be in the mid 70s, and the sea water temperature last night at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 74 degrees.
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I will at at Gardendale’s First Baptist Church today to speak to the kids in their pre-school there… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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